Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 10
Mark Williams Over 10.5 Rebounds (+108) at FanDuel
Williams went over in four straight games before he grabbed eight rebounds in his last outing against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s yet to face the Miami Heat in part because of previous injuries, but the Heat rank just 23rd in rebounds allowed per game.
In addition, the Heat are 18th in rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers. They also allowed 12 rebounds to Nick Richards the first time and 11 rebounds to Moussa Diabate, the two centers who played the most minutes, the second time they played the Charlotte Hornets, giving Charlotte centers a positive precedent.
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Bilal Coulibaly Under 5.5 Rebounds (-114) at FanDuel
Yes, Coulibaly recorded 10 rebounds in Saturday’s matchup with the same Toronto Raptors squad he’s about to meet on Monday. But if there’s one rule that should always ring true in sports betting, it’s to judge a player by their averages and not by their outliers or aberrations.
Coulibaly went under this line in eight of his last 10 games, and just like he had those 10 boards against Toronto two days ago, he had two boards in their penultimate matchup. The Raptors also rank fifth in rebounds allowed per game to opposing shooting guards thanks to their tall and active lineup.
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Tyrese Haliburton Under 3.5 Rebounds (-106) at FanDuel
Haliburton under 3.5 rebounds is one of my favorite recurring bets, and for very good reason. The value rarely shifts despite him continually going under this line, most recently resulting in 10 unders in his last 13 games.
Like Coulibaly, Haliburton went over and had five rebounds when he played the Chicago Bulls eight days ago, but this is a game of averages and standards. Haliburton consistently went under this line, and the Bulls have been slightly better on the glass as of late compared to their season averages.
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Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 Threes (-114) at FanDuel
There aren’t enough superlatives or adjectives for Jokic, who ranks in the top three in points, rebounds, and assists per game. He even shot 43 percent from three on 4.5 attempts per game, but he still went under in two of three matchups with the Oklahoma City Thunder and their league-leading defense.
Jokic went 2-10 from three when he played the Thunder yesterday. The 20 percent shooting percentage is encouraging, and I expect OKC coach Mark Diangeault to make the necessary adjustments to ensure that Jokic doesn’t get the same volume of opportunities this time around. OKC also allowed the lowest three-point percentage (33.3) in the entire league.
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Keyonte George Under 18.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel
George, a second-year player from Baylor, averaged 16.8 points per game but only shot 39.4 percent from the floor. He went under in four of his last six outings and now gets to go against the defense of the Boston Celtics, who allowed the third-fewest points per game and have an outstanding rotation of defensive pieces, particularly at guard.
George and the Utah Jazz have not played the Celtics yet this season, but the 17.5-point spread for this game suggests that it will not be competitive. A blowout would likely see George sit on the bench, and he also shot worse from the field and much worse from three on the road this season.
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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+495) at FanDuel
-Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5)
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Desmond Bane 6+ rebounds: He’s on a great stretch and went over in five straight games and averaged 10.3 rebounds per game in March.
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Kevin Durant 25+ points: Went over in five of seven games and in all three matchups with the Grizzlies, who allowed the sixth-most points per game over the last month.
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Bol Bol over 4.5 rebounds: Went over in both games against the Grizzlies and went over in five of his last seven games overall.
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